Group Stage Predictions
Forecasting Every Matchup From this Weekend’s Tournament
Vote, the ADC for the Oni Warriors during a regular season match. The Warriors will attempt to qualify for the SWC Main Event at this weekend’s play-ins. Image courtesy of Hi-Rez Studios.
Match 1: Tartarus Titans vs Highland Ravens (BO3)
The Tartarus Titans were dealt a difficult hand at the phase 3 playoffs, where they fielded a new jungler on just a few days notice after Layers’ untimely suspension. Still, the Titans with Cyno managed to upset the fourth seeded Warriors, ultimately stumbling against the Leviathans and Bolts to wind up in the Group Stage.
Their opponents the Ravens are a stacked EU SCC team featuring some of the region’s best players. Adapting himself is one of SMITE’s most storied players. But the Titans are one of the most stacked rosters at the play-in. The reality for the Ravens is that a win in this match will be hard to come by. They will have to keep Cyno off of Ne Zha as well as keep Paul from getting a pick he can run the game on. Easier said than done, especially since that leaves SoloOrTroll, who can be a win condition in and of himself, wide open to pick whatever he wants.
2-0 Titans.
Match 2: Oni Warriors vs Xibalba Storm (BO3)
The Oni Warriors have their fair share of tournament disappointments with this roster, but for their part have probably the most stacked roster of anyone in the play-in. Nika and Dardez could each argue for a top-3 position in their roles, and QvoFred can look like the best in any given game. Meanwhile, for my money, Vote is the best ADC on the planet. On talent alone, less experienced teams will struggle to exploit the Warriors’ weaknesses, which arise around coordinated team play.
On the other side, the Xibalba Storm put in an impressive performance against a surprisingly weak field at the NA SCC championships, but they are the least experienced roster at this tournament and arguably the least talented. Their chances against a seasoned team like the Warriors are frankly slim. Maybe they can string together a solid early game start here or there, but likely the Storm will fall without much response to the Warriors’ superior map and team play.
2-0 Warriors.
Match 3: Valhalla Valkyries vs Eldritch Hounds (BO3)
Nearly ten months ago now, the Valkyries stormed through a field of SCC talent to claim the final spot in the SPL. Over the course of the year, the Valkyries showed flashes of remarkable improvement. It would be easy to point to that history and say they should roll over any SCC team, even one as dominant at the Hounds. But that was then, and this was now. What worries me about this Valkyries team is that they had so many opportunities to play themselves into a better situation, either by making playoffs or securing the seventh seed. Now they are the last seeded SPL team with a tough match against the Hounds. I worry about their confidence when playing from a position of strength, where they previously failed down the stretch to close out phase 3.
For the Hounds, they have played against the NA SCC field like one would expect an SPL team to perform: zero lost games and clean, dominant wins. The Hounds should feel as confident as ever and have nothing to lose. That’s a winning recipe against a shaky team with everything to lose. This one is a toss up, but I am leaning toward the Hounds for the upset.
2-1 Hounds.
Match 4: Solar Scarabs vs Hex Mambo (BO3)
A rematch from the summer’s biggest upset, Hex Mambo will have to find some more magic in order to win against a Solar Scarabs who have quietly been the talk of the proverbial SPL town. The rumor is that the Scarabs have been performing well in scrims, which reflects their dramatic improvement over the final two weeks of play in phase 3. For Hex Mambo’s part, they will finally have their support, Trixtank, in-studio with them, but the new-look Scarabs are likely to be a harder out than Mambo saw in their match against the team from the summer.
2-0 Scarabs.
Match 5: Highland Ravens vs Valhalla Valkyries (BO3)
In contrast to their match against the Hounds, the Valkyries in this set will feel the weight of expectations lifted off of them. While, to the spectator, the Valkyries will face immense pressure in their elimination match, a loss in the first round will have the Valkyries playing more loose and free, sensing that the narrative is against them. They thrive in those situations. That, paired with the talent and experience mismatch in four of the five roles in favor of the Valks should be enough to lift them past the Ravens with little resistance.
2-0 Valkyries.
Match 6: Hex Mambo vs Xibalba Storm (BO3)
Part of what makes Hex Mambo dangerous is their position as an SCC team coupled with their pedigree and experience up and down the roster, Hex Mambo has the benefit of poise without pressure. On the other side, Storm will be playing for a shot at Worlds for the first time in their careers, and the calm presence on the other side of the aisle coupled with, of course, high levels of talent will make surviving this elimination a tall task.
2-0 Mambo.
Match 7: Tartarus Titans vs Eldritch Hounds (BO5)
The Titans have players that know how to show up at big moments. Paul and SoloOrTroll notably have two of the best worlds performances in recent memory, while Aror and Cyno won a championship together four seasons ago. The experience mismatch is too much to ignore here, and while Hounds have their share of potential superstars—Oath and Crimson among them—pulling out a win against five players as skilled and experienced as the Titans will be difficult. The only point of pressure for the Hounds will be the matchup of Oath against Cyno. Oath has one of the highest ceilings of any player in this tournament, but he has yet to crack the SPL. If Oath outplays Cyno for a full set, the Hounds could be flirting with an upset. In any event, I think the Hounds have shown they can match some of the best teams—just not for five games. The Titans will be the first team from the group stage to punch their ticket to the main event.
3-1 Titans
Match 8: Oni Warriors vs Solar Scarabs (BO5)
By the time this set comes around, two things will be clear: the Scarabs are for real, and the Warriors came to play. As with any weekend, the Warriors are a question mark heading in. You never know what team you will see when they take to the battleground. However, their dominant win over the storm in match 2 will have demonstrated that this weekend’s Warriors are in top form.
Not the worst news for the Scarabs, who will be in their best shape all season as well. The talent mismatch in mid is one of the biggest worries for me. Snoopy has spent a long time out of the SPL, and while his god pool and play styles are varied enough to participate in high-end play, Dardez is a player who can beat you by himself if he gets his god. It will be close for the Scarabs, but not close enough as the Warriors make their way to the main event.
3-2 Warriors.
Match 9: Valhalla Valkyries vs Edritch Hounds (BO5)
Fo our first rematch with a spot on the line, the Valkyries will have seen first-hand how to beat the Hounds from watching the Titans on Saturday. With Thursday’s loss a distant memory to them, the Valkyries will come to play on Sunday, hitting the hounds with varied strategies and flexing their superior experience and preparation in best-of-five situations. From Thursday, these Valkyries will be night and day different, and they will close out the Hounds cleanly to play at the SMITE World Championship for the first time in franchise history.
3-0 Valkyries.
Match 10: Hex Mambo vs Solar Scarabs (BO5)
In our second rematch and final of the tournament, the Scarabs will be eager to prove that their hard work was not for nothing. Against Mambo, whom they defeated earlier in the tournament, that will be far from simple. Still, I like the Scarabs’ upside as a unit more than Mambo, but I do not expect Mambo to go quietly. How the Scarabs can hold up to the pressure of a tight set against a tough SCC team will make the difference, but ultimately the better team will manage a convincing game five victory to return once again to the main event.
3-2 Scarabs.
