Phase 3 Week 5
Just As We All Expected
“Losing is learning,” Hurriwind, support and newest member of the Solar Scarabs wrote on Twitter after Sunday’s loss to the Tartarus Titans. For him and the Scarabs, perhaps he is right. For the rest of us, it feels like there was far more losing than learning in Phase 3 Week 4. The firm division between the top and bottom teams remains unchanged if muddied slightly, but several matches this week ended in upset or were surprisingly close. Fitting for a week that began with a surprising roster change, week 4 has given us the most data thus far in phase 3—and the fewest answers.
#1
Atlantis Leviathans (6-1)
Previous ranking: 3
Last week: 2-0 (Dragons 2-1, Valkyries 2-1)
Week 5: Valkyries, Titans
What makes a #1 team?
It is a deceptively simple question. The competition in the SPL is often so close that the ‘best team’ is rarely as straightforward as just ‘the team at the top of the standings.’ The season is also long, and the makeup and consistency of the rosters change over time. The best team may have lost some sets weeks ago, but have since improved to be the clear team-to-beat. For my definition, the best team is the hardest to defeat. The SPL is a professional league and every team is talented—losses will happen and hard sets will happen too, but the best team will find ways to win.
In a week 4 match up against the Valkyries, the Leviathans unexpectedly found themselves in a hard set. The Valkyries won game 2, and then a Leviathans lead in game 3 was erased by technical difficulties, only to be replaced by an even more dominant performance in the remade victory. Thus far in phase 3, the other seven teams in the SPL are a paltry 1-24 when losing game 2, a win rate of just .040. When these Leviathans have dropped game 2, they are 2-1 (.667), their lone loss a week 1 sweep at the hands of the Warriors. Likewise, when losing game 1, other teams are just 4-22 (.153). The Leviathans are 1-1 (.500).
That win came against the Dragons on Friday, when the Leviathans found themselves at an 0-1 deficit for the first time since week 1 against the team many regarded as the best. In an even game 2, the Leviathans lost an enhanced Fire Giant after Zapman mistaken dashed toward PolarBearMike, but they held on to win despite what seemed like a fatal error. The Leviathans then found themselves in a seemingly insurmountable hole in game 3 when they managed to steal a Fire Giant and never looked back. When facing adversity, the Leviathans have risen to the occasion better than anyone. When teams have adapted, the Leviathans have adapted right back.
The best teams win even on their worst days. They win even when their opponent is playing well. They improve as the season goes on. They rarely beat themselves, and they will punish even the smallest mistakes. This is the Atlantis Leviathans.
Prediction: 2-0 Valkyries, 2-0 Titans
#2
Jade Dragons (5-2)
Previous ranking: 1
Last week: 0-1 (Leviathans 1-2)
Week 5: Scarabs, Kings
No excuses for the Dragons. When they win, the Dragons are perhaps more impressive than anyone. When they win. Granted, the Dragons only have just two losses, but neither was really a fluke. Both came against top teams, and both came despite the Dragons winning game 1 (the Dragons have yet to lose a game 1 in phase 3). They gave a game away against the Warriors by playing their jungler in mid on a B-tier mage, but they wised up for game 3 and still lost a close game. They lost a narrow game 2 against the Leviathans, then threw a lead game 3 by losing Fire Giant on a risky early pull, ultimately losing the game.
The Dragons still lead the league in 2-0’s with five, but four of those have come against bottom teams. Against the other top teams, they are just 1-2. That is less alarming than in looks: they trounced the Kings in week 1 and stayed close against both the Warriors and the Leviathans. But there are no points for keeping it close, especially when you beat yourself. The Dragons have been close for long enough. The best teams find ways to win, and it is past time for that to be the Dragons.
As harsh as I’ve been, the Dragons are still a clear top-2 team. They haven’t given so much as an inch to the bottom teams, and prior to their loss to the Leviathans, they dismantled the Bolts at the end of week 3. Fineokay is putting up video game numbers (a sports metaphor which unfortunately makes little sense in the context of eSports). The Dragons solo laner is slashing an unfathomable 44/17/124, good for a 6.24 KDA and best in the league. Pegon (5.00) and PandaCat (4.04) also each have the best KDA in their respective roles. The Dragons play well, undoubtedly. They just need to play well and not lose.
Prediction: 2-0 Scarabs, 2-0 Kings
#3
Camelot Kings (5-2)
Previous ranking: 4
Last week: 1-0 (Bolts 2-0)
Week 5: Dragons, Valkyries
Not much to say about the Kings this week. They played a match on Friday that they ought to win, and they won handily. They took less than an hour to defeat the Bolts who, coming into the week, were struggling to find competitive sets. CaptainTwig has a little bit of a dying problem—he is tied with NeilMah for the second most deaths of any player in the top 4 teams, and he is the only jungler among those teams to have fewer kills than deaths. Nevertheless he remains perhaps the best facilitator-style jungler in the league. Twig goes in and sets up his team better than arguably anyone in the role, and the carries he sets up—Netriod and BigManTingz—are two of the very best. BigManTingz can only be said to have a dying problem if the problem is his opponent’s—he is 3rd in deaths among mid laners with 25, but he barely trails Pegon (23) and Paul (24).
The Dragons will always be a problem for these Kings. Not only are they hard to beat anyways, the Kings just seem to struggle against them.
Prediction: 0-2 Dragons, 2-0 Valkyries
#4
Oni Warriors (5-2)
Previous ranking: 2
Last week: 1-1 (Titans 2-0, Bolts 1-2)
Week 5: Bolts, Titans
A chance to be #1 in the standings slipped through the Warrior’s fingers, and they lost to a bolts team they should not have lost to. Credit to the Bolts, but the Warriors won game 1 and were in a commanding position, only to fail to find one win in two chances. They won game 1 against the Kings in week 2 as well. The impressive resolve they showed in beating the Dragons has been matched only by a frustrating inability to close out sets. The Warriors had the team-play to be undefeated thus far, but ultimately they couldn’t find wins when they had to.
Look, as helpless as the Bolts have seemed this phase, they are still a professional team with professional talent. They can beat you, and sometimes they will. But the best teams will still find out how to pull out set wins even when their opponents rise to the occasion. The Warriors haven’t done that—not consistently anyway. This loss to the Bolts is no cause for alarm, but it does make them the only top four team to lose to a bottom team, snapping a 14-set win streak of top four over bottom four. The consistency issues are rearing their head, and it’s enough that my confidence in these Warriors is cracking—just a little.
They get a rematch against the Bolts after the bye week where they will get a chance to show how resilient they are.
Prediction: 2-1 Bolts, 2-0 Titans
#5
Olympus Bolts (2-5)
Previous ranking: 7
Last week: 1-1 (Kings 0-2, Warriors 2-1)
Week 5: Warriors, Scarabs
Just like we all predicted, the Bolts beat the Warriors. Death, taxes, etc.
In all seriousness, the chatter last week was if these Bolts deserved to be last place in these rankings. That was premature, but it highlights just how weak they have looked at times this split. Those weak Bolts performances aside, LASBRA has been one of the best junglers in the league, and with 68 he is one kill off from being tied with Panitom and Screammmmm for the most kills in the role, and second in the league (side note: Sheento has 89, somehow).
It may seem premature to vault the Bolts up to #5 from just one win, but the three teams below them are less stable, and four of these Bolts were a top-2 team a phase ago. These power-rankings are not meant to be predictive, but their past performances are enough to convince me that this win is less a fluke and more evidence that the Bolts can be competitive.
Prediction: 1-2 Warriors, 2-0 Scarabs
#6
Tartarus Titans (3-4)
Previous ranking: 5
Last week: 1-1 (Warriors 0-2, Scarabs 2-0)
Week 5: Warriors, Leviathans
The Titans parted ways with CycloneSpin, ending his nearly 5-year partnership with Aror, not counting when they were teammates in season 1. The move means that the Titans are starting somewhat from square one as they try to acclimate to new ADC Stuart. The team has plenty of talent, but they have struggled to find a clear identity, and a roster change is unlikely to be a quick fix even if it does result in improvements eventually. If the Titans had not made a change, I would have left them at #5. However, the roster change means they have to spend some time learning how to play together, and they will likely lose a lot in the meantime. The ceiling for this team is World Champions, but at this point they have a lot of climbing to do to reach that ceiling.
The Titans will face two big tests coming out of the bye: a rematch with the Warriors, and the Leviathans.
Prediction: 0-2 Warriors, 0-2 Leviathans
#7
Valhalla Valkyries (1-6)
Previous ranking: 6
Last week: 0-2 (Scarabs 1-2, Leviathans1-2)
Week 5: Leviathans, Kings
The Valkyries lost to a Scarabs team that, at the time, had existed in its current iteration for just three days. That is undoubtedly the low point of the season. However, they followed it up with an impressive set against the Leviathans, even though they did ultimately lose. The Valkyries have still been the better team overall, and they’ve had more competitive sets against better teams than the Scarabs, but the loss is a kick in the jaw for the Valkyries who, no doubt, were hoping to start separating themselves from the bottom of the SPL. There’s still plenty of upside… there’s still plenty of upside.
Prediction: 0-2 Leviathans, 0-2 Kings
#8
Solar Scarabs (1-6)
Previous ranking: 8
Last week: 1-1 (Valkyries 2-1, Titans 0-2)
This week: Dragons, Bolts
The Scarabs got a new look duo lane after Stuart jumped ship for the Titans. Jarcorrr moved to ADC, a role he played briefly a season ago, and Hurriwind jumped in to play support. They promptly won their first set just three days after the roster was announced. The Scarabs undoubtedly got better, but they still got steamrolled by the Titans on Sunday. The win shows that the Scarabs are capable of showing up now, but Rome was not built in a day and the new roster is still going to take some time to reach its full potential.
Prediction: 0-2 Dragons, 0-2 Bolts
